Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Bull vs. Bear CaseBTC Casino / 24th January 2019
As Bitcoin price rolls into the fourth day of the week we take a look at what’s happening in the market and if there is any relief in sight for the bulls.
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Bitcoin price 00 opened the week just a slight about $3500 which is where it currently stands. The $3500 Price level was tested on Tuesday by the bears who managed to push the price down around $100, before seeing a strong 5% swing back to $3600, which may have been posturing by algorithmic trading to determine the strength of the market at lower prices.
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The daily chart largely remains unchanged, with Bitcoin consolidating above preliminary support of $3500 on low volume and remains in the weekly range between around $4000 and $3200.
The 200 Week moving average currently standing at $3300, looking ominous and favours being tested (given we are in a bear market), with there being little evidence that there are any significant buyers at $3500. That being said, there are also clearly a lack of sellers at these prices which explains the missing volume.
Looking to the 4-hour chart for clues, it is slightly easier to see the market structure. The downward channel that bitcoin is locked in has some minor resemblance of a falling wedge with some bullish divergence on the RSI. This would fit the narrative of there being buying interest below.
As The RSI has shown relatively recently in this scenario, a directional break from its current tightening range, may give us an early signal as to where this market will ultimately chose to go.
Bull vs. Bear Cases
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Some of the more bullish commentators are pointing out that a strong reversal at these levels would push the market back up towards $4k and show evidence of bottom pattern which, if it broke above key resistance at $4050 and maintained support, would ultimately open the door to prices as high as $5k.
Overall however, the bulls are up against declining resistance, declining volume and remain in a bear market.
While there is likely to be some reaction with any test at $3200, the bulls are already leveraged long as illustrated by Bitfinex data, with bears not interested at selling – yet.
Should we continue to observe the market to drift sideways with failure to make a higher high above $4050, the descending triangle will be in play with a target of around $2,000 looking likely.
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